Capital Insights: What the Real-Time Data Says About the Economy

Jun 18 2026 | Back to Blog List

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:

Hi, I'm Trent Von Ahsen, partner with Cedar Point Capital Partners. Welcome to the June 2026 edition of Capital Insights.

If you follow the headlines, you've heard a lot of noise lately — conflict in the Middle East, elevated inflation, questions about where interest rates are headed. It's easy to come away feeling uncertain about the economy.

Real-time economic data tells a more grounded story, however.

Most economic reports are released weeks or even months after the fact. To get a more current read, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas publishes what's called the Weekly Economic Index — a real-time composite that pulls together consumer spending, employment trends, fuel sales, and other indicators.

As we can see here in Figure 1, that Index has held around 3% through the first half of 2026 — well above the long-term average of 2%. That signal tells a steady story: the economy remains on solid footing, even through a noisy stretch.

Recent manufacturing data reinforces that story.

Figure 2 shows the ISM Manufacturing Index, which surveys purchasing managers at factories nationwide. In May, it rose to 54 — its strongest reading in four years. A reading above 50 signals expansion, and May was the fifth consecutive month above that threshold.

The labor market tells a similar story. Employers added 172,000 jobs in May, unemployment has held steady at 4.3%, and consumers are still spending. The message is clear: economic growth remains solid.

Now, there are legitimate headwinds worth watching. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and markets currently expect rates to hold their range through year-end. Those things matter.

But the broader takeaway is this: the economy has continued growing through a great deal of uncertainty. That's worth keeping in perspective when the headlines feel heavy.

Sound financial planning isn't built on predicting what comes next — it's built on staying oriented to where you are. Moments like this are a good reminder of why we focus on process and discipline, rather than reacting to noise.

If you have any questions about this video or your portfolio, reach out and let’s start the conversation.

My name is Trent Von Ahsen, and I look forward to seeing you right here next month for our latest edition of Capital Insights.

Stay curious, stay mindful of your goals, and we’ll see you next time.

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